I wanna grow up to be a rock star…
March 27 2016
Reality check #1 when you want to determine your chances of being rich and famous – look around and examine your surrounding. See any golden spoons lying around? No? Your chances just got squashed by 33%. Look in the mirror and honestly ask yourself if you look good. – Oh you do? Sorry hun, that is not enough. But let’s say you are super gorgeous/handsome. Ok so now you are in the upper 5% of attractive people. There are around 1.3 billion people living in the OECD countries (countries which supply the entertainment stars in the western world). 5% x 1.3 billion equals to 75 million attractive people. Your chances are 1:75 million and I am being gracious here, trust me.
We established the fact there are no golden spoons lying around. So you 33% worse leaving you at about 1:100 million chance of becoming rich and famous. Oh, you do not have any exceptional talent? Boom! 50% more unlikely, so we are at 1:200 million. Do you already have a vine channel, youtube channel and and instagram with at least 20k (live) followers? No? You are at least 25% worse off because nowadays everyone seems to have 127k followers on instagram. So we are at 1:250. Are you under 21 years old? Nope? Your chances just decreased by 100%. You are at 1:500 million. But lets say that about 100 people get famous every year.
Still, you are at 1 in 10 million.
I do not like your odds. But you know what is more likely than that?
You gonna be attacked by a shark (1 in 3.37 mil.)
Being struck by a lighting (US data: 1 in 960k)
Being bitten by a snake. (If you are Australian you are likely to be bitten by a snake three times in your life)
You gonna f#*k Lidsay Lohan. (not really)…
Call me a buzzkill but do you honestly believe you can make it? I do not mean to discourage your dreaming but let’s be real here. I am afraid we are raising a post-millennial generation in which everyone can become anything they want. The fact is everyone will have to become something. And that something will be distributed among the population almost exactly as it has been with previous generation. Ok, there will be some shifts between the industries because not as many people work in the agriculture as they did two generations ago. But the intergenerational shift amongst industries will not allow for 50% of post-millennials to become rich and famous. Especially when the wealth is being continuously shifted into the pockets of smaller and smaller percentage of the population.
I want people to dream yet I also want people to confront the reality. We can’t raise a bunch of useless dreamers that do not deal with the actual ‘real life’ (Now play Weekend’s song ‘Real Life’ in you head). Or can we? Maybe we can. The post-millennial generation will not be selling its skills, it will sell just their attention, which is also just a different way of selling the only currency we really have – the time. Post-millennials will be sitting behind their computers watching Vines, YouTube, Facebook or whatever kids do nowadays. If the AI will reach the level Elon Musk predicts we do not any workforce right? The whole system will work just by pressing a button. But we need people to do something, don't we? So people will be consuming. And they will be paid for that. Robots will take care of everything.
So what is the point of this article? I do not really know but let’s say that the summary of the morals are:
It is more likely becoming tapas for a shark than becoming famous.
Stop day-dreaming and confront the reality.
Or you know what? – Just continue dreaming because robots will take care of everything.
If you are going to question the math above I will have to question your sanity.